The folly of climate change

20 January, 2009 | GROW
A severe drought, together with food prices rising daily, has left millions in Ethiopia in need of emergency food assistance. Cr
A severe drought, together with food prices rising daily, has left millions in Ethiopia in need of emergency food assistance. Cr

Some people still ask how climate change and poverty fit together. The people in Ethiopia could tell you. While Ethiopia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions may be relatively small, the people of Ethiopia are facing the challenge of having to adapt to the effects of climate change – such as erratic rainfall, increased temperature, and recurring droughts. Last week the first National Climate Change Conference opened in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. Marc Wegerif, Oxfam's Economic Justice Campaign Coordinator, was there and he shares his observations of the event:

There were over 400 participants at this landmark National Forum, and one thing all participants agreed on is that climate change is real, is happening now, and is a major driver of poverty. More extreme weather conditions are affecting agriculture, water supply, soil erosion and more. Despite the challenges of responding to climate change in a country that is dealing with widespread poverty there was a positive tone to the conference with many speakers emphasizing the opportunities that exist.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi opened the conference and called upon all national and international organizations to join the National Climate Change Forum that is being established to address the climate change challenges faced by his country. He praised Oxfam's previous efforts to help protect Ethiopia’s intellectual property rights related to coffee.

Tewelde Berhan, General Manager of the Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority, described climate change as “the biggest folly in human history.” While outlining the vulnerability of Ethiopia to climate change he also painted a positive picture of a possible future if all adaptation efforts are fully implemented. Janet McKinley, Chair of Oxfam America, shared encouraging quotes from President Barrack Obama who has made clear his commitment to work as an ally with all those committed to clean energy and confronting the challenge of climate change.

Prime Minister Zenawi elaborated on some of the Ethiopian government's plans that amount to what he referred to as a “strategy of an essentially carbon neutral path of development.” This includes work on developing agriculture through the protection and regeneration of the natural resource base, substituting fossil fuel use with bio-fuels [unfortunately!], and increased investment in hydro-power along with harnessing wind and geothermal energy sources.

He was clear in pointing out the injustice of climate change which is that “those who contributed nothing to its genesis will suffer the most from its consequences.” The Prime Minister called for an approach of taking “common, but differentiated responsibility” whereby all work to respond, but those who contributed more to causing the problem, who are also better positioned to assist, will contribute more to the costs of adapting and implementing climate-friendly development paths. Ultimately he said “we will deal with the reality, however unjust that reality might be.”

Ethiopia is becoming a good example of a Least Development Country doing what they can to respond to climate change despite the injustices and limitations of resources. In this crucial year for the negotiation of a new global climate change deal Ethiopia, hopefully along with other African countries, can be a strong example and moral voice for greater global efforts to deal with the “folly” of climate change. Encouraging and strengthening this voice is one of Oxfam’s strategies in demanding greater international action to reduce the impact of climate change on people in poverty.

As Prime Minister Zenawi emphasized, we can “only adapt if we fight poverty.” As Oxfam's Janet McKinley noted, we should never see the situation as one of having to make a choice between development and dealing with climate change. Instead we must see responding to climate change as “an economic development opportunity to lift people out of poverty.” I couldn't agree more.

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Climate Change - Get Involved - OXFAM GB

2009 is expected to be THE year of climate change.

Crucial negotiations will take place throughout the year which will decide how the world tackles global warming for decades to com

The Link Between Climate Change and Recession

The recent World Economic Forum, attended by Barbara Stocking highlighted the link between climate change and recession.

Re-writing the Kyoto Protocol

Re-writing the Kyoto Protocol

A layman’s definition of Fuzzy Logic is arriving at a solution which collectively and directionally solve a multi-variable problem without a requirement to fully understand the mechanism of each variable or combined effects.
The Kyoto Protocol is based on Fuzzy Logic by suggesting that man made Green House Gases is the cause of global warming and climate change. The protocol is well intended by providing an opportunity to clean up the planet and create new technologies and employment opportunities but should not proceed in its current format.
The intent of the Kyoto Protocol, ratified in February 16, 2005, was to stabilize Green House Gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere that would prevent human interference with the earth’s climate system.
Specifically, the treaty established a legally binding commitment amongst 183 industrialized nations for the reduction of six greenhouse gases (GHGs); carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (NOx), sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (known as CFCs).
Collectively, industrial nations agreed to reduce their GHG emissions by 5.2% from levels recorded in the year 1990. Mandated reductions by nations include; European Union of Nations 8%, USA 7%, Japan 6%, China, Russia & India 0%. Australia was allowed to increase emissions by 8% and Iceland by 10%.
Kyoto also included mechanisms for GHG emitting countries to purchase GHG emission reduction credits from non GHG emitting countries. Non polluting countries could use these credits to sustain existing reduction mechanisms, for example, forest CO2 sequestration or new GHG emission reduction projects.
Kyoto has deliberately blamed changes in the earth’s climate on concentrations of certain GHGs without taking into consideration major GHGs such as water vapor, clouds, volcanoes, the Milankovitch cycle and soot.
The Kyoto Protocol is flawed and should be modified because of the following reasons;
1. The Protocol claims that carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (NOx) and Chloro-fluoro-hydrocarbons (CFCs) produced by human activity have contributed to Global Warming.
Scientists say that since the year 1750 the atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen from 280 ppm to 387 ppm, methane CH4 has risen from 0.70 ppm to 1.745 ppm and nitrous oxide NOx has risen from 0.044 ppm to 0.314 ppm and CFCs from 0 to 533 ppt.
Other scientists say that the average global temperature rose from 13.85 degree C in 1880 to 14.60 degree C in 2004 due to GHGs produced by human activity.
Scientists also say the above mentioned GHGs produced by human activity account for 5% of the total GHGs from all human activity. The other 95% of GHGs are produced from natural sources.
Scientists say that water vapor (H2O) is a GHG and its atmospheric concentration ranges from 0-40,000 ppm (4%).
Scientists also say that GHGs such as ground level O3 has concentrations of 0-40 ppb and CO with concentrations of 0-0.3 ppm.
Scientists claim that the GHG contribution to the Green House Effect is water vapor 36-70%, carbon dioxide 9-26%, methane 4-9%, ground level ozone 3-7% with CFCs and NOx having no significant effect because of low concentrations.
The Kyoto Protocol failed to mandate the reduction of H2O vapor, CO and O3; three significant GHGs. Neither did it mandate Volatile Organic Hydrocarbons (VOCs) with typical concentrations of 440 ppb. It mandated in error the reduction of CFCs and NOx which have no significant Green House Effect because of extremely low concentrations.
With human activity responsible for about 5% of all CO2 emissions and Kyoto mandating a 5.2% reduction overall, a worldwide reduction of 0.26% (product of 5% and 5.2%) will have no significant impact on the Green House Effect.
There is more latent heat released in a cubic foot of stack gas then the same volume of typical GHG concentrations absorbing solar energy and converting it to thermal energy.
2. Scientists say significant changes in the earth’s atmospheric temperature and precipitation distribution patterns are caused by volcanoes in the southern hemisphere. These disturbances are known as the El Nino and El Nina Effect and last 3-11 years. Following a volcano eruption, a thin layer of "aerosolized" particles hangs in the stroposphere, causing an overall cooling of the planet's atmosphere of a few tenths of a degree Celsius. The reason for the temperature decline is due to the reflection of solar energy into outer space by the elevated levels of SO2 contained in the aerosol. The net effect results in the east-west prevailing winds over the Pacific to stop, causing a huge buildup of warm water in the central pacific ocean. This has effects on climate that can reverberate around the southern hemisphere, inflicting snowfalls and landslides in South America, drought in southern Africa, a weak hurricane season in the Atlantic and forest fires in Indonesia. These temporary changes in climate have nothing to do with GHGs.

3. Scientists say that of all the solar energy that reaches the earth 30% is never absorbed, of which 20% is reflected by clouds, 6% is reflected by the atmosphere and 4% is reflected by the earth’s surface. The earth’s surface absorbs 51% and the atmosphere and clouds absorbs 19%, of which heat energy will be released into space during the night. Clouds require water droplet formation to occur on dust particles with an effective radii of at least 14 microns for precipitation to occur. Smoke has smaller particle size and is generated from burning vegetation as well as man-made coal power plants, refineries, smelters, and large urban areas. It is often suppressed by cloud formation and precipitation. Fewer clouds to reflect solar energy, increase the GHG Effect without any major influence of GHGs.
4. Scientists say the earth is in the middle of a 100,000 year Milankovitch cycle caused by the changing distance of the earth to the sun. The precession of the Earth’s axis and the changing of the tilt in the earth’s axis which redistributes the sunlight received by the earth, occurs every 42,000 years. The Ice Age Maxima occurred 20,000 years ago with the North American polar ice cap melting ever since. The change in the earths’ temperature due to the earths’ solar system distance to the sun and tilt has nothing to do with GHGs.
5. Soot particulate is created from the incomplete combustion of diesel fuels, bio-fuels, coal and outdoor biomass burning. The percent makeup of man-made sources of soot include road transportation 25%, no-combustion processes 24%, industrial combustion plants and processes 17%, commercial and residential combustion 16% and public power generation 15%. Natural sources such as volcanoes and dust storms account for 95% of all soot and air borne particulate.
Scientists say that soot particulate in Northern Hemisphere snow and ice is responsible for 25% of the Global Warming for the period 1880 to 2000. Clean snow and ice reflects solar energy into space, but soot covered snow absorbs short wavelength solar energy, transferring it to long wavelength in the form of heat thus accelerating the melting. Scientists say soot is responsible for early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, melting glaciers and melting permafrost. Proof of the existence of soot is the visible black stripes in icebergs. The melting of polar ice due to soot and particulate absorbing solar energy has nothing to with GHGs.
6. Scientists say the average temperature in a typical city on a clear afternoon can be 1-3 degrees C hotter than that of the surrounding rural area. This is primarily due to solar heat absorbed by objects such as buildings. The elevated temperature also increases smog concentrations (VOCs, O3) by 2-4%. On a clear sunny day with a roof reflectivity of 0.08 (asphalt shingles) solar energy can raise the surface temperature to 65 degree C from a night time temperature of 20 degree C. Absorption of solar energy by dark objects in localized areas has a greater impact on atmospheric temperature than GHGs. On a sunny day a cubic foot of air over house roof shingles create more heat than a cubic foot of air filled with an average concentration of GHGs.
What possible impact can human intervention of a 0.26% reduction of the Kyoto GHGs make to global temperatures without considering the impact of tropospheric O3, VOCs, CO, soot, volcanoes, H2O (and clouds), the Milankovitch cycle, absorbed solar energy and exothermic heat due to hydrocarbon combustion processes?
Carbon Penalties and Credits
The Kyoto Protocol does not require China, Russia and India to reduce GHG emissions. These nations are responsible for 18.39%, 5.60% and 4.93% of total CO2 emissions, respectively. GHG reductions for every industrialized nation have arbitrarily been set. Collectively, about 27,000,000,000 MT/yr of CO2 emissions are mandated to be reduced by 5.2% thereby matching 1990 levels. Limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others, as well as 7% for the United States, 6% for Japan, and 0% for Russia. The treaty permitted GHG emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland. Kyoto did not distribute CO2 reductions fairly to certain industrialized nations. No consideration was taken into account for each nations’ land area and the ability to naturally sequester CO2.
A proposed method that defines each industrialized nations’ required CO2 emission reduction is outlined below.
Scientists say that 5% of all GHGs are produced by human activity, 95% is produced naturally.
The oceans sequester 30% and land sequesters 20% of all atmospheric CO2 present. The other 50% remains in the atmosphere. Since the earths’ land is owned by a particular nation and the oceans are not, land sequestration of CO2 should be part of the GHG emission target equation. Given that the earths’ total land area is 136,000,000 km2, the earths’ total CO2 production is 540,000,000,000 MT/yr and the total CO2 emissions from all industrialized nations is approximately 27,000,000,000 MT/yr, and each industrialized nations’ annual CO2 emissions (data collected in 2007 by the CDIAC for the United Nations) and land area are known, a fair method of calculating CO2 emission reductions can be determined for each industrialized nation.
The Kyoto Target is a 5.2% reduction of 27,000,000,000 MT/yr which equates to 1,404,000,000 MT/yr.
Using China as an example,
- annual CO2 emissions of 5,010,170,000 MT/yr
- land area of 9,629,091 km2
- 7,698,906,000 MT/yr CO2 is sequestered by land due to human and natural sources
- 384,945,000 MT/yr CO2 is sequestered by land
- 4,625,225,000 MT/yr is the net CO2 emissions
- 296,014,000 MT/yr CO2 is the reduction required*
*Since Brazil and Lybia land areas sequester the CO2 amount they are required to reduce, the other industrialized nations must reduce more, so the 5.2% Kyoto mandated must be increased to 6.4%.
At say $20/MT, China is required to reduce CO2 emissions or pay non-industrialized nations for carbon credits worth approximately $5,920,000,000/yr.
The Kyoto Protocol was signed amongst 183 industrialized nations without defining the rules for carbon credit trading.
Carbon trading deals with CO2 emissions which represent 77% of all GHG emissions.
Carbon credit trading is a scheme used by industrialized nations to allow them to maintain or increase CO2 levels through the purchase of carbon credits from nations that sequester more CO2 than they are allowed to produce.
Carbon credits are to be traded through internationally stock markets. With no regulation in place, speculators and illegal schemes will emerge comparable to those that created the Tech, Uranium and Oil bubbles. This will lead to inflated carbon credit valuation leading to the fall of the carbon credit trading system.
A proposed method that defines each non-industrialized nations’ CO2 sequestration amount is outlined below.
Scientists say that 5% of all GHGs are produced by human activity, 95% is produced naturally.
The oceans sequester 30% and land sequesters 20% of all atmospheric CO2 present. The other 50% remains in the atmosphere. Since the earths’ land is owned by a particular nation and the oceans are not, land sequestration of CO2 should be part of the GHG emission target equation. Given that the earths’ total land area is 136,000,000 km2, the earths’ total CO2 production is 540,000,000,000 MT/yr, the total CO2 sequestered by all non-industrialized nations is 1,394,372,000 MT/yr based on land area is 37,475,765 km2, a fair method of calculating CO2 emission credits can be determined for each non-industrialized nation.
Using Mongolia as an example (rounded numbers),
- annual CO2 emissions is 0 MT/yr
- land area is 1,565,000 km2
- 1,242,788,000 MT/yr CO2 is sequestered by land due to human and natural sources
- 58,215,000 MT/yr CO2 is sequestered by land
Industrialized nations must pay Mongolia the equivalent of 58,215,000 MT/yr of Carbon credits for naturally sequestered CO2 by their forests, grasslands and native bodies of water.
At say $20/MT, industrialized nations must pay Mongolia carbon credits worth approximately $1,164,000,000/yr.
Defining the Real Problem
In the earth’s upper atmosphere there are three basic reactions taking place as a result of solar energy reacting with O2 and H2O vapor. They include O2 dissociation, O3 creation and OH-creation. The OH- ion is what the earth uses to react with contaminants, such as CH4 and other light than air hydrocarbons, to form simple molecules such as carbon dioxide, water and carbonic acid.
Methane Reaction
1) 4O2 + hv à 8O= oxygen dissociation
2) 8O= +4O2 + hv à 4O= + 4O3 ozone creation
3) 4O= + 2H2O +2O2 + 4O3 à 4OH- + 6O3 Hydroxyl creation
Add 6 CH4 Methane from Earth’s surface
4) 2CH4 + 4OH- à 2CO + 2H2O + 4H2 And Water Vapor from Earth
4CH4 + 2O2 à 4HCHO + 4H2 Methane / HC oxidation
5) 4HCHO + hv à 4H2 + 4CO
6) 6CO + 6O3 à 6CO2 + 6O2 Ozone Depletion
7) 12H2 + 3O2 + hv à 6H20
8) 6CO2 + 6H2O à 6HCO3- + 6H+ Carbonic Acid returns to earth
9) 3HCO3- + 3H2CO3 + 3H+ + 3Ca++ + 3SiO3 à Water creation
3CaCO3 + 3CO2 + 6H2O + 3SiO2
9 mole volumes of O2 are used up to break down 6 mole volumes of CH4 of which 1-1/2 mole volumes of O2 are returned to the atmosphere.
4-1/2 mole volumes of O2 are lost to CaCO3, 1-1/2 mole volumes of O2 remain as CO2 and 3 mole volumes of O2 remain as H2O.
For every 2 moles of carbonic acid absorbed by the ocean, 1 mole is released as CO2.
6 mole volumes of CH4 GHG creates 3 mole volumes of CO2 GHG and 6 mole volumes of H2O GHG.
The constraint appears to be OH- production due to a shortage of H2O vapor to form O3 in the upper atmosphere.
CO Reaction

CO + OH + O2 à CO2 + HO2.
HO2. + NO à NO2 + OH
NO2 + hv à NO + O
O + O2 + M à O3 + M
Net: CO + 2 O2 + hv à CO2 + O3

NOx Reactons

1) O= + H2O → 2OH-
2) NO2 → NO + O=
3) O2 + O= → O3
4) NO + O3 → NO2 + O2
5) HO2 + NO → OH- + NO2
NOx enhances OH- production when H2O is present.
Reaction with VOCs
VOC + OH → HO2 + other products
HO2 + NO → OH + NO2
NO2 + hν → NO + O
O + O2 + M → O3+ M
Reaction with N2
N2 + hv → 2N
N + O2 → NO + O=
N + NO → N2 + O=
O= + O= → O2
Effect of Combustion
CH4 + 2O2 à 2H2O + CO2 + heat
1 mole volume of combusted methane produces 3 mole volumes of GHGs.
50% or 0.5 moles of CO2 is sequestered by land and oceans. The other 0.5 moles of CO2 remains in the atmosphere indefinitely. 2 moles of H2O is added to the atmosphere.
Note: atmospheric chemistry is meant for illustration purposes and may not be totally stoichiometrically correct.
In summary, dissociated oxygen reacts with H2O vapor and hydrocarbons to produce CO2 and carbonic acid in the upper atmosphere. CH4 (and lighter hydrocarbons) and H2O vapor rise from the earth’s surface to the upper atmosphere because their density is less than that of air. CO2 and carbonic acid (H2CO3) vapor is denser than air and return to the earth’s land surface and oceans. Given the number of chemical reactions involved, scientists say it may take the CH4 molecule 9 to 12 years to break down.
Scientists say holes in the O3 layer of the north and south poles are caused by the formation of stratospheric clouds. The GHG contents of these clouds react with O3 causing depletion resulting in a hole. During each Antarctic winter the formation of stratospheric clouds creates holes in the ozone layer. These holes seldom develop over the Arctic because the winters need to be 10 degrees C colder for the stratospheric clouds to form.
Given that the amount of the sun’s solar radiation reaching the earth is fixed and the atmospheric CH4 concentration is rising, it would appear that O3 production in the Upper Atmospheric Tropopause is maxed out to the point of resulting in an occasional O3 hole due to depletion.
Given that the atmospheric CH4 concentration is rising, it would appear that the upper atmosphere is unable to produce enough OH- ions to break down the existing load of CH4 and low density hydrocarbon vapors.
From the equations above and the fact 95% of all CO2 is produced naturally, it can be concluded that CO2 is a naturally occurring GHG produced in the upper atmosphere from the oxidation of CH4 and other light hydrocarbons.
Given that the atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising, it would appear that the earths’ land surfaces, plants and oceans are unable to sequester current levels.
With the depletion of O2 due to the creation of CO2 and carbonic acid, it can be concluded that the atmospheric concentration of atmospheric O2 is dropping. It is important to note that humans and mammals faint when the O2 concentration drops from 20% to 19.5% (5000 ppm).
The Solution
a) To reduce CO2, H2O vapor and heat production, CH4, VOC, NOx, soot and particulate emissions, requires the following actions be taken;

- Replace existing refineries and petrochemical complexes if they can’t be retrofitted to process H2, SNG, methanol and ethanol as feedstock and if they can’t capture CO2 and reduce it to O2 and carbon.
- Replace existing coal and fuel oil fired electrical power plants with hydro, nuclear, hydrogen and geothermal plants, solar panel and wind turbines farms if they can’t be retrofitted to capture CO2 and reduce it to O2 and carbon.
- Replace existing gasoline and diesel fossil fuels used for combustion car, truck and locomotive engines with bio-diesel and ethanol fuels.
- Replace existing gasoline and diesel combustion car and truck engine technologies with rechargeable electric batteries and corresponding drive trains.
- Replace existing gasoline and diesel combustion car and truck engine technologies with E85 to E100 ethanol technologies.
- Ban the manufacture of fossil fuel gasoline and diesel powered car and truck combustion engines unless fueled with bio-ethanol, bio-diesel or synthetic fuels derived from waste.
- Capture all heat and water vapor from hydrocarbon combustion sources.
- Capture all heat and water vapor from cooling towers.
- Capture all heat and steam discharges to the atmosphere.
- Capture all heat and hot water emissions to water sheds and sewers.
- Capture all heat and water vapor from process stacks.
- Capture all GHGs and VOCs from process stacks and convert to ethanol, O2 and carbon.
- Capture all VOCs from processes or decomposing organic materials and convert it to ethanol.
- Replace all small engines with rechargeable battery powered motors.
- Recycle all paper, plastic, metal and glass.
- Divert all garbage from landfills and convert it to bio-fuel.
- Convert sewage sludge, agricultural waste and all other organic sources to bio-fuel.
- Collect all paper, plastic, metal and plastic in public and private places and recycle and convert to ethanol and diesel fuel.
- Capture all CH4 & VOCs from all landfills and agricultural waste.
- Dig up all landfills and convert organic materials to bio-fuel.
- Dig up all landfills and recycle glass and metals.

b) To increase solar energy reflection or reduce solar energy absorption requires that the following actions be taken;
- Replace low reflective shingles on buildings with high reflective shingles.
- Install reflective siding over low reflective brick on buildings.
- Replace dark colored paint on vehicles with high reflective paint.
- Replace asphalt paving with high reflective concrete.
- Apply high reflective coatings to dark objects.

c) To increase the natural sources of CO2 sequestration requires that the following actions be taken;
- Plant trees on public recreational and private lands.
- Practice agricultural methods which retain plant growth and minimize soil exposure.

d) To replace industrial processes with complex building block processes to simpler ones, such as H2, CH4, SNG, methanol and ethanol, requires that the following actions be taken;
- Replace or convert existing refineries and petrochemical plants from crude oil to H2, CH4, SNG, methanol and ethanol based feedstock capable of capturing CO2 and reduce it to O2 and carbon.
- Because there is CO2 produced, H2, SNG and carbon black from the microwave break down of tires, plastic, oil sands, organic waste, shale, coal and waste hydrocarbons, shall be used as feed stock for refineries and petrochemical plants.

e) To replace CO2 underground sequestration with processes that returns O2 to the atmosphere requires that the following actions be taken;
- Replace processes that generate CO2.
- Reduce CO2 to O2 and carbon black.
- Convert carbon black to fertilizer.
- Add carbon black to agricultural soil.
Rules
To implement the intent of the Kyoto Protocol fairly requires that those industrialized nations emitting GHG in excess of their allotment must reduce CO2 emissions or buy carbon credits;
Using the method outlined in the previous section, countries below are in excess of the Kyoto CO2 limits and must reduce CO2 emissions by the following amounts;
United States 362,000,000 MT/yr, China 296,000,000 MT/yr, European Union* 234,000,000 MT/yr, Russia 54,000,000 MT/yr, India 78,000,000 MT/yr, Japan 80,000,000 MT/yr, Canada 15,000,000 MT/yr, South Korea 30,000,000 MT/yr, Mexico 23,000,000 MT/yr, South Africa 25,000,000 MT/yr, Iran 24,000,000 MT/yr, Indonesia 19,000,000 MT/yr, Ukraine 20,000,000 MT/yr, Australia 1,000,000 MT/yr, Saudi Arabia 15,000,000 MT/yr, Thailand 16,000,000 MT/yr, Turkey 12,000,000 MT/yr, Kazakhstan 6,000,000 MT/yr, Algeria 6,000,000 MT/yr, Malaysia 11,000,000 MT/yr, Venezuela 9,000,000 MT/yr, Egypt 8,000,000 MT/yr, United Arab Emerites 9,000,000 MT/yr, Argentina 2,000,000 MT/yr, Uzbekistan 8,000,000 MT/yr, Pakistan 6,000,000 MT/yr, Nigeria 5,000,000 MT/yr, Kuwait 6,000,000 MT/yr, Viet Nam 5,000,000 MT/yr, Iraq 4,000,0000 MT/yr, North Korea 5,000,000 MT/yr, Phillipines 4,000,000 MT/yr, Israel 5,000,000 MT/yr, Syria 3,000,000 MT/yr, Belarus 4,000,000 MT/yr, Chile 2,000,000 MT/yr, Columbia 1,000,000 MT/yr, and Serbia & Montenegro 3,000,000 MT/yr.
*European Union countries Includes; Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain, Poland, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Belgium, Greece, Romania, Austria, Finland, Portugal, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark, Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta.
Based on land mass, Brazil and Lybia sequester more CO2 than they produce, therefore they are eligible for carbon credits of 10,000,000 MT/yr and 6,000,000 MT/yr, respectively.
The proposed carbon credit equivalents and penalties are summarized below;
a) A carbon credit is equal to a reduction of 1 metric tonne (MT) of equivalent CO2 (CO2e) emissions.
b) The value of a carbon credit of 1 MT be equivalent to the world price of crude oil per barrel (BBL).
c) Bio-fuels are defined as sugar cane, sugar beets, corn, jatrophia, soya, cellulose, wood chips, paper, bio-garbage, etc.
d) Penalties: In terms of emissions produced from man-made sources; 1 MT of CO2e is equal to 1 MT of NOx, 1 MT of CFCs, 1 MT of a 1 Carbon chain VOC, 1MT of Soot Particulate, 1 MT of water vapor produced or 1 MT of O2 consumed. 2 MT of CO2e is equal 2 MT of a 2 Carbon chain VOC, etc.
e) Credits: A standard method that defines each non-industrialized nations’ CO2 sequestration amount is outlined below.
Scientists say that 5% of all GHGs are produced by human activity, 95% is produced naturally.
The oceans sequester 30% of all atmospheric CO2 and land sequesters 20%. The other 50% remains in the atmosphere. Since the earth’s oceans are not owned by any particular nation, land sequestration of CO2 should be part of the GHG emission target equation. Known relative constants are the earths’ total land area (136,000,000 km2), the earths’ total CO2 production 540,000,000,000 MT/yr (27,000,000,000/.05), the total CO2 sequestered by all non-industrialized nations is 1,394,372,000 MT/yr based on land area is 37,475,765 km2.
Using Mongolia as an example (rounded numbers),
- annual CO2 emissions 0 MT/yr
- land area 1,565,000 km2
- 1,242,788,000 MT/yr CO2 sequestered by land due to human + natural
- 58,215,000 MT/yr CO2 sequestered by land due to human activity
Industrialized nations must pay Mongolia the equivalent of 58,215,000 MT/yr of Carbon credits for naturally sequestered CO2 by their forests, grasslands and native bodies of water. At say $20/MT, industrialized nations must pay Mongolia carbon credits worth approximately $1,164,000,000/yr.
Other countries eligible for carbon credits from industrialized nations include;
Sudan 101,000,000 MT/yr, Congo 94,000,000 MT/yr, Greenland 87,000,000 MT/yr, Mongolia 58,215,000 MT/yr, Peru 52,000,000 MT/yr, Chad 52,000,000 MT/yr, Niger 51,000,000 MT/yr, Angola 50,000,000 MT/yr, Mali 50,000,000 MT/yr, Ethiopia 45,000,0000 MT/yr, Bolivia 44,000,000 MT/yr, Mauritania 41,000,000 MT/yr, Tanzania 38,000,000 MT/yr, Namibia 33,000,000 MT/yr, Mozambique 32,000,000 MT/yr, Zambia 30,000,000 MT/yr, Burma 37,000,000 MT/yr, Afghanistan 26,000,000 MT/yr, Somalia 26,000,000 MT/yr, Central Africa 25,000,000 MT/yr, Botswana 24,000,000 MT/yr, Madagascar 24,000,000 MT/yr, Kenya 23,000,000 MT/yr, Yemen 21,000,000 MT/yr, Turkmenistan 20,000,000 MT/yr, Cameroon 19,000,000 MT/yr, Papua New Guinea 19,000,000 MT/yr, Morocco 18,000,000 MT/yr, Paraguay 16,000,000 MT/yr, Zimbabwe 16,000,000 MT/yr, Congo Rep 13,000,000 MT/yr, Cote d’Ivoire 13,000,000 MT/yr, Philippines 12,000,000 MT/yr, Ecuador 11,000,000 MT/yr, Burkina Fasco 11,000,000 MT/yr, New Zealand 11,000,000 MT/yr, Gabon 11,000,000 MT/yr, Western Sahara 11,000,000 MT/yr, Guinea 10,000,000 MT/yr, Ghana 10,000,000 MT/yr, Laos 9,000,000 MT/yr, Uganda 9,000,000 MT/yr, Guyana 9,000,000 MT/yr, Oman 9,000,000 MT/yr, Kyrgyzstan 8,000,000 MT/yr, Senegal 8,000,000 MT/yr, Cambodia 7,000,000 MT/yr, Uruguay 7,000,000 MT/yr, Tunisia 7,000,000 MT/yr, Suriname 7,000,000 MT/yr, Bangladesh 6,000,0000 MT/yr, Tajikistan 6,000,000 MT/yr, Nepal 6,000,000 MT/yr, Nicaragua 5,000,000 MT/yr, Eritrea 5,000,000 MT/yr, Malawi 5,000,000 MT/yr, Benin 5,000,000 MT/yr, Hondurus 4,000,000 MT/yr, Liberia 4,000,000 MT/yr, Cuba 4,000,000 MT/yr, Guatemala 4,000,000 MT/yr, Iceland 4,000,000 MT/yr, Yugoslavia 4,000,000 MT/yr, Jordon 4,000,000 MT/yr, French Guiana 4,000,000 MT/yr.
Based on land mass, Brazil and Lybia sequester more CO2, than they produce, therefore they are also eligible for carbon credits of 10,000,000 MT/yr and 6,000,000 MT/yr, respectively.
New Transportation Fuel Credits: A credit of 1 MT CO2e emissions produced from the combustion of bio-fuels is equal to 1 MT of CO2e emissions produced from fossil fuels displaced in 2009 and beyond. Transportation fuels include methane, methanol, propane, gasoline, #2 FO, #6 FO, Jet Fuel, etc.
New Power Generation Credits: A 2 MT CO2e emissions credit for wind, nuclear, solar, bio-fuel power generation which displaces 1 MT of CO2e emissions produced from fossil fuels in 2009 and beyond. This includes power generation produced from the combustion of coal, #2 FO, #6 FO, etc.
Existing Power Generation Credits: A 1 MT CO2e emissions credit for bio-fuel power generation which displaces 1 MT of CO2e emissions produced from fossil fuels in 2009 and beyond. This includes existing power generation produced from the combustion of coal, #2 FO, #6 FO, etc.
CO2e Reduction Credit: 1 MT of CO2e emissions credit for 1 MT of CO2 or 1 MT of NOx reduction to carbon (C) and O2 or N2 and O2 from fossil fuel power generation or transportation fuel combustion. Carbon (C) must be stored in such as manner that it does not react with oxygen to form CO2 or CO.
CO2 Sequestration Storage Credit: -2 MT of CO2 emissions penalty for 1 MT of CO2, stored underground or stored in water bodies, generated from fossil fuels.
Tree CO2 Sequestration Credit: 1 MT of CO2e emissions credit for 1 MT of CO2 sequestration by newly planted trees on lands where there were none prior to 2009. Harvested trees must be replaced within two growing seasons and be of equal CO2 sequestration capability to maintain credit. 1 acre of 25 planted trees is worth 1 carbon credit.
The price of a carbon credit should be based on supply and demand. It should range from $1US to $100US/MT for each CO2e reduction credit.
Implementation
It is proposed that the GHG emission reductions be implemented in the following actions;
a) Allow fossil fueled plants with feed stocks such as coal, #2 FO, #6 FO, etc. to operate or be built if CO2 from flue gas is sequestered to increase oil well production, used for other industries or reduced to O2 and Carbon (C) and stored in such a manner that it does not react with oxygen to form CO2 or CO.
b) Allow fossil fueled plants with feed stocks such as coal, #2 FO, #6 FO, etc. to operate or be built, if the company possesses enough CO2e emission credits in the country of the company’s headquarters to operate the plant in its own country and another country.
c) Industrialized nations in excess of their CO2e emission limits must immediately start paying nations for carbon credits that are currently within their carbon equivalent emission limits.
d) Include CO2e emissions in the country of the company’s headquarters that operate a plant in another country.
e) To reduce current CO2 concentrations by 5.2%, it must be legislated that CO2 producing companies of each nation be given a specific time frame in which to comply with mandated levels.
f) Nations not exceeding their carbon equivalent limits must be paid for carbon credits within a specific time frame from nations in excess since they are currently maintaining natural CO2 sequestration sources, for example boreal forests, bushlands, grasslands, etc.
g) Industrial nations in excess of their carbon equivalent limits have the option to pay non industrialized nations carbon credits if they produce sugar cane, sugar beets, maze, soya, jatropha, etc. for the purpose of processing it into transportation fuels methanol, ethanol and bio-diesel thereby reducing CO2 equivalent emissions.
h) Waste materials derived from trees, humans and agriculture, for example paper products, waste treatment sludge, food spoils, cow manure, etc., that are converted to methane gas for power generation and transportation fuels are eligible as carbon credits.
i) Landfill wastes derived from fossil fuels, for example plastic should be outlawed.
j) Recycling of all fossil fuels derived materials, such as plastic, should be legislated into law.
k) Allow carbon credits for naturally derived sources of hydrocarbons used to make plastics, rubber, etc. normally made from fossil fuels.
l) Allow full carbon credits for the recycling of materials such as plastic, glass, metal etc. since recycling it can save up to 90% in energy.
m) Each country shall hire carbon credit enforcement officers to inspect carbon credit generating facilities on a monthly basis to ensure they are compliant. Reporting shall be to the officer’s country and United Nations.
n) Regulate the stock exchange to ensure speculators do not illegally drive up the value of carbon credits.
Long Term
1. Re-tool coal mines to produce hydrogen, SNG, methanol and ethanol.
2. Re-tool oil sands mine upgraders to produce H2, SNG, methanol and ethanol.
3. Re-tool refineries and petrochemical complexes such that they are based on simple feedstock, namely H2, SNG, methanol and ethanol with the capability of molecular reduction of CO2 emissions to O2 and carbon.
4. Molecular reduction of a portion of crude oil, SNG, natural gas to hydrogen for fuel cell use and carbon (examples, carbon black, char) for agricultural use.
5. Molecular reduction of carbon dioxide (MRCD) to carbon (examples, carbon black, char) and oxygen (gas) from existing coal and natural gas fired power plants.
6. New electrical power generation from wind turbine, nuclear, geothermal, solar, hydrogen fuel cells and SNG/CNG fuel cells with MRCD.
7. Re-tool vehicle power conversion systems to electric, hydrogen fuel cell / electric hybrid and methanol fuel cell with MRCD.
8. Divert water treatment sludge, landfill organics and hydrocarbon based materials to a molecular reduction of hydrocarbon (MRHC) facility for conversion to CH4, H2 and carbon.
9. Add carbon (example, char) from MRCD to agricultural soils (Terra Preta).
10. Produce fertilizer from MRCD carbon.
11. Enhance depleted oil well production with carbon dioxide displacement.
12. Divert glass, paper, plastic, metals and organic wastes from landfills. Ban landfills except for the disposal of inert non hydrocarbon wastes.
13. Plant trees.
Indirect Benefits
1. The optimum capacity of the Wind Turbine power in the USA is 304,000 MW. It has the potential to create 1,700,000 man-yrs of manufacturing jobs, 304,000 man-yrs of construction jobs and 4,560,000 permanent jobs by adding 304,000 MW to the power grid replacing coal and fuel oil electrical power plants and reducing 1,625,000,000 MT of CO2 emissions by the year 2030.
2. Creation of employment opportunities through the development of fuel cell technology.
3. Creation of employment opportunities through the development of ethanol, bio-fuel, hybrid and electric vehicles.
4. Creation of employment opportunities through the development of uranium and REE mines.
5. Creation of employment opportunities by the creation of American made E85 to E100 ethanol fueled vehicles.
6. Creation of employment opportunities with coal to H2, SNG, methanol and ethanol technologies.
7. Potential for reducing CO emissions by 43%, hydrocarbons by 56%, particulate by 55%, air toxins by 60% and CO2 by 78% by replacing fossil fuel with bio-diesel (jatropha). diesel. The typical cost is $43/BBL @ 3 MT/ha. Most non-industrialized nations are capable of growing jatropha in arid climates including the southern USA, Mexico, South America, Africa and southern Asia.
8. Creation of 14,300 direct and 43,000 indirect jobs in the USA recycling 100% of all landfill waste. An additional 1,144,000 direct jobs and 3,440,000 indirect jobs by recycling landfills used over the past 40 years.
9. Save 19,000,000 BBLS of crude oil and reduce 6,000,000 MT/yr of CO2 emissions by the USA recycling all ferrous metals in landfill garbage. Additional savings of 760,000,000 BBLs of crude oil and a 240,000,000 MT of CO2 reduction by recycling landfills used over the past 40 years.
10. Creation of 14,600 direct and 43,800 indirect jobs in the USA by processing recycled and landfill ferrous metal instead of exporting scrap to Asia and leaving it in a landfill. An additional 1,168,000 direct jobs and 3,504,000 indirect jobs by recycling landfill scrap used over the past 40 years.
11. Save 34,000,000 BBLS of crude oil and reduce 11,000,000 MT/yr of CO2 emissions by the USA processing all scrap ferrous metals instead of exporting it. An additional savings of 1,360,000,000 BBLs of crude oil and a 440,000,000 MT of CO2 reduction by recycling landfill ferrous used over the past 40 years.
12.
13. Other indirect savings attributing to recycling landfill ferrous metal and not exporting scrap ferrous metal include reduction in water, water pollution and mining waste.
14. Creation of USA employment opportunities and save on imported oil with conversion of scrap tires to natural gas, diesel fuel and carbon black using microwave technology. Savings in the order of 14,400,000 BBL/yr of imported crude oil and reduce CO2 emissions by 4,565,000 MT/yr and displace 14,000 foreign direct jobs/yr and 42,000 foreign indirect jobs/yr by converting tires to carbon black.
15. Provide new technologies which will generate employment for industrialized nations.
16. Reduced dependence on foreign sources of fossil fuels by displacing them with fuels produced from agriculture and garbage.
17. Significantly reduce the cost of energy and transportation fuels by generating competing alternative sources.
18. Allow the upper atmosphere to process normal concentrations of hydrocarbons by maintaining normal hydroxyl and ozone concentrations.
19. Completion of the carbon cycle by converting CO2 back to carbon and O2.
20. An acre of 36 maple trees 25 years old absorb 1 MT of CO2/year. The USA loses 106,000 acres of forest per year adding about 106,000 MT of CO2/yr of CO2 to the atmosphere.
21. Produce ethanol from corn for E85 vehicles. USA consumes about 142,350,000,000 gals/yr of gasoline and blends 13,000,000,000 gals/yr of ethanol for a total blend of about 10% ethanol. Agricultural sources can increase production to 20,000,000,000 gals/yr of ethanol to achieve a 15% blend. At 100 gals per job, that equates to 70,000 permanent jobs.
22. Produce ethanol from 85% of all USA garbage for E70 vehicles. USA produces about 232,692,000 MT/yr of garbage of with 85% is organic. 100 gal of ethanol can be produced from 1 MT of garbage. This equates to 20,000,000,000 gals/yr of ethanol. Agricultural sources and garbage sources can increase the ethanol in gasoline blend to achieve about 30% blend. At 165 permanent jobs per 663,000 MT/yr of garbage, these plants will produce 49,000 permanent jobs and 148,000 indirect jobs. In addition 90,000 man-yrs of construction employment would be temporarily created.
23. Provide employment for third world nations with bio-fuel agriculture.

Investment Opportunities
1. Companies involved in jatropha bio-fuel include Chevron (CVX), British Petroleum (BP), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Daimler AG (DIA) and Bayer AG (BAY).
2. Wind Turbine manufactures and components include Vestas (VWSYF), Suzlon Energy (SUZL), GE Energy (GE), Siemens (SI), Nordex (NDXGk), Gamesa (GAM) and American Semiconductor (AMSC).
3. The only company involved in the reduction of scrap cars, sludge, tires, coal, shale and oil sands into natural gas, diesel oil and carbon black without the production of CO2 is Global Resource Corp (GBRC).
4. Wind farm companies include Western Wind Energy (WND), Canadian Hydro Developers (KHD), vector Wind energy (VWE) and Shear Wind (SWX).
5. Mining companies providing uranium to nuclear power plants include Cameco (CCO), Paladin (PDN), Denison Mines (DML) and Uranium One (UUU).
6. Companies involved in providing Geothermal Energy include Calpine Corporation (CPNLQ) of San Diego which operates 19 of 21 geothermal plants in California. Other noteworthy geothermal power companies include Constellation Energy Group (CEG), IdaCorp Inc. (IDA), Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. (NGLPF), Ormat Technologies Inc. (ORA), PG&A Corp. (PCG), Polaris Geothermal (PGTHF), Raser Technologies (RZ), Sierra Geothermal Power Corp (SRAGF.PK), US Geothermal Inc. (UGTH), Western GeoPower Corp (WGPWF) and WFI Industries (WFILF).
7. Companies involved in solar reflective roof materials include Owens Corning (OC) and Elkcorp (ELK).
8. The only company that manufactures electric cars with Ultra-capacitors in North America is ZENN Motors (ZNN).
9. A company involved in converting organic waste to bio-char, bio-oil and SNG is Siemens (SI).
10. Companies involved in technologies producing methanol, gasoline and diesel fuel from SNG are Shell (RDS), Air Product (APD) and ExxonMobil (XOM).
11. The following companies, Great West Minerals (GWG) and Avalon Ventures (AVL), are rare earth element miners.
12. Companies involved in fuel cells include Ballard Power (BLD) and IdaTech (IDA), Catalytica (CESI) and Cinergy (CIN).
13. A company involved in organic wastes to ethanol technology is AlterNRG (NRG).
14. A company involved in converting organic wastes to bio-fuels is Startech Environmental (STHK).

Conclusions
Evidence that GHGs created by man are causing global warming is unfounded.
Re-writing the Kyoto Protocol is a great opportunity for the USA to develop new technologies, eliminate landfills, create new employment opportunities, improve our health, eliminate our dependence on foreign oil and provide an opportunity to live up to our moral commitment of feeding poor nations of the world.
However, implementing what is needed will triple current energy costs.

Disclosure: I do not hold stock in any of the above mentioned companies.
George Gorski
Feb.14, 2009

Thank you

Thank you