Adapting to a changing world: A Southern African perspective

Another year, another flood.  For the third year in a row now there is flooding across several Southern Africa countries.  In Southern Angola, Cunene Province is under water again and the now-ubiquitous tented camps swell in the provincial capital Ondjiva as people arrive in hope of finding some assistance from the government and NGOs like Oxfam. 

In neighbouring Namibia, river levels have reached a 40-year high, whilst in Western Zambia the islands in the Zambezi floodplain, where people traditionally seek refuge during the seasonal flooding, have started to disappear.  Everyone is now monitoring the weather forecasts to see if more rain will fall and worsen the flooding.  And as most of Southern Africa’s rivers end up in Mozambique, we’re nervously watching the levels of the Kariba and Cahorra Bassa dams, to see whether Mozambique will be the next country submerged by floodwaters.

People live close to rivers for a reason in Southern Africa. The fertile floodplains offer the opportunity of a good harvest, whilst the rivers provide fish and communication pathways. Seasonal flooding is nothing new along the banks of the Zambezi River and its tributaries; in fact people welcome the flooding, which brings fresh nutrients to the land. However, speaking to people who have co-existed with the rivers quite happily for some time, you now hear that the balance is changing and life is becoming very unpredictable. Rains no longer come when they should, and harvests fail due to too much or too little water. The floodwaters also seem to be getting higher and higher every year, forcing people from their homes, and blocking access to schools and clinics. Communities’ traditional coping capacities are being eroded which further drags them into the cycle of poverty.

I think it's now commonly accepted that Climate Change is the key driver of these more frequent and more intense weather events in Southern Africa. If anyone wants to argue that environmental changes are not happening, then let them go to the camps in Ondjiva or visit the families in Zambia, whose traditional safe islands are now under water. This is the reality that poor people are facing and this is only the beginning of the changes that Southern Africa will see over the next 10 – 20 years.

Research collated by Oxfam now shows that in only six years time the number of people affected by climate-related crises is projected to rise by 54 per cent, from 250m people currently to 375m. The massive increase in disasters would be shocking enough if the world could cope with the current humanitarian situations. But the international system struggles to cope with current crises, like the millions going hungry in Somalia and hundreds of thousands adrift and homeless in the jungles of the Congo or across Southern Africa.

The question now is not what will happen, but what we can do to try and minimise the impact of these changes.

In Mozambique, Oxfam, together with the Government’s Disaster Management Agency is working to reduce the vulnerability and increase the preparedness of communities who live alongside the Zambezi River. Some of the initiatives include flood risk mapping linked to early warning systems so that people are able to take action and seek safety before it's too late. Other activities include trying to mitigate the impact of floods such as ensuring that the schools and clinics, where people gather during high flood-levels, have clean water systems in place.

But these communities and their governments need support in adapting to this changing world. It’s clearly not the people of Zambia or Namibia who are responsible for their changing environment – it is the rich northern countries that are principally accountable for climate change.

This is why the rich world must also help poor countries to cope with the extra stress of climate change. Oxfam estimates they need to provide at least $50bn annually – in addition to their aid budgets - to help people protect themselves from climate change.

In Southern Africa, this would mean providing funds to urgently help the riverside farmers adapt to this new reality – to build schools and clinics which are safe from floodwaters and to look at new farming techniques which are more resistant to the growing cycle of floods and droughts.  There is also a need to review how humanitarian funding is organised so that these small hidden disasters, which don’t make international headlines, are not ignored by donors or the public. It is very frustrating for me, when Oxfam has capacity to do more, but is unable to because of insufficient or slow-to-arrive resources.  But change also needs to happen in the north – if governments at the various climate change negotiations coming up take bold action, there is still opportunity to address the underlying causes of Southern Africa’s floods.

Oxfam makes some clear recommendations on how to reform the international humanitarian system and more in its new report  - The Right to Survive.